lunedì, luglio 20, 2009

The New Normal: bastonate per tutti

Sagge parole . "Come rimetti a posto un'economia basata sui consumi, quando i consumatori sono disoccupati?" . Soprattutto quando molti di questi consumatori non hanno in effetti abilità che permettano loro di trovare un nuovo lavoro nella loro vecchia professione, almeno senza un drastico taglio di stipendi.
La soluzione sarebbe semplice: abbandonare l'ossessione per il consumo sussidiato dal governo e ripartire pensando all'offerta, restituendo libertà agli individui; non verrà perseguita. Molto più semplice, demagogico e politicamente gradevole, ri-regolamentare ed opprimere, sino alla prossima esplosione. I programmi assistenziali e il rafforzamento del potere dei sindacati manterranno felici le masse durante il declino, almeno sino a quando non sarà rimasto più nulla da predare, pardon, spartire.


clipped from www.pimco.com
Bob Herbert. “No Recovery in Sight” was the heading and his opening sentence asked, “How do you put together a consumer economy that works when the consumers are out of work?” That is really all one needs to ask when divining our economy’s future fortune
As unemployment approaches 10%, what is less well publicized is that the number of “underutilized” workers in the U.S. has increased dramatically from 15 to 30 million. Those without jobs, as well as those individuals who only work part-time and have become discouraged and stopped looking, total 30 MILLION people. The number is staggering. Commonsensically, one has to know that many or most of these are untrained for the demands of a green-oriented, goods-producing future economy. Imagine a welding rod in the hands of an investment banker or mortgage broker and you’ll understand the implications quicker than any economist using an econometric model.

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clipped from www.pimco.com
But to add to the woes of the investor class, one has only to observe that their share of the pie is shrinking. What does the General Motors example tell us all about the rebalancing of power between the investor class and the proletariat? What do trillion-dollar deficits and the recent reinitiation of PAYGO government programs tell you about the future of corporate tax rates? They’re headed higher. Do you really think that a national health care program can be paid for with cost-cutting as opposed to tax hikes at insurance companies and benefit-paying corporations throughout all sectors of the American economy? The new normal will not be investor-friendly unless your forecasting dial is turned to “Pollyanna” or your intelligence quotient is significantly less than 100.
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