Va bene, la banche fanno pena. Va bene, l'inflazione galoppa. OK, Freddie MAc e Fannie Mae stanno giungendo alla naturale conclusione di ogni azienda di Stato che non viene privatizzata vomletamente, ossia al fallimento. Ma il resto delle aziende continuano a produrre utili , vero?
Ehm. No.
AL momento, sembra che per il terzo trimestre consecutivo le aziende comprese nelll'indice S&P 500 riporteranno risultati peggiori delle aspettative, che erano gia' state sostanzialmente ridotte. Come nei due trimestri precedenti. Il settore finanziario e' indubbiamente il maggior responsabile, ma certi malesseri hanno la sgradevole abitudine di diffondersi, soprattutto quando a prendersi la polmonite e' un settore centrale per il buon funzionamento della nostra economia.
Well, at least the market still has earnings…or not. Headed into next week, when 59 members of the Standard & Poor’s 500-index report earnings, the blended growth rate for the second quarter is for a 14.7% decline in year-over-year earnings. On July 1, the consensus was for an 11.5% decline, according to Thomson Reuters. Barring a major reversal (i.e., manna from heaven), this is going to be the fourth consecutive quarter of negative growth in the stock market. Once again, financial shares are the culprit, as the expectation is for a 72% decline, compared to a 66% decline one week ago. What’s been disconcerting about the past three quarters is this: Generally, analysts lower earnings estimates as the quarter wanes, and companies clear the lowered bar — but that hasn’t happened in the last three earnings periods. But the S&P 500’s actual growth has fallen short of estimates for three consecutive quarters, and it may happen again. “It probably will turn at some point, but for this quarter, your guess is as good as mine – I wouldn’t even wager a guess,” says John Butters, director of U.S. earnings research at Thomson Reuters.
fonte: WSJ
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